The Sticky Wicket That Abortion Has Become for the 2024 Election
The aftermath of the 2022 midterm elections has had Republican politicians scrambling to rebrand themselves and the definition of what it means to be Pro-Life. When the "red tsunami" the GOP predicted, turned out to be a red ripple that barely rocked the boat, Republicans found themselves, reeling back on their heels and staggering from the election results. They won the majority in the House by the slimmest of margins and lost the majority in the Senate. What happened? Dobbs is what happened. The Supreme Court overturned Roe and along with it with the erroneous "woman's constitutional right" to have an abortion, and returned the abortion issue back to individual states. The Democrats, however, turned a legal victory for the pro-life cause into a defeat by winning the narrative. It all began with the leak from the Supreme Court and then the left's spin machine went to work branding the right as the ones who are extreme and adroitly incited and stoked fears amongst women voters. Once again Republicans found themselves flat footed and unprepared to meet the challenge. Make no mistake about it Democrats will make this their biggest campaign issue because it's the only winning issue they have and here's why they have the edge.
Public opinion has swung to pro-choice, according to Pew, 61% say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Interestingly 60% of Republicans say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. By contrast 80% of Democrats say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Views on abortion by age among adults under 30 (74%) say abortion should be legal. This is perhaps the most distressing statistic of all because we are losing the future. What is being done to turn the hearts and minds of our young to value life? If you break down by religious affiliation, 74% of white evangelicals do not support abortion but that still leaves 26% who do. Surprisingly, only 56% of Catholics are pro-life. Clearly the Church is not doing its job very well. Once our children enter the public school system from K through 12 and beyond, we are churning out uneducated, indoctrinated, secular progressives. This is what we are up against and it won't be turned around over night. We need to take a long term approach to turning this around, after all, it took 50 years to overturn Roe. Our main focus should not be winning over the hearts and minds of the 61% who are entrenched in their beliefs, but to focus on winning over future generations. (a topic for another time)
So what about the here and now? I am extremely disappointed in the capitulation of our so called pro-life candidates. A non-profit research group aligned with Mitch McConnell, One Nation, found that 71% of suburban women disagree with the Dobbs decision. Translate that to: Republicans collective geese are being roasted in the burbs, and they are reacting to it, too little, too late. Stick a fork in it, it's done and it will be served up in the 2024 election for lunch. The Republican Primary debate was very revealing on the capitulation by candidates. "Stalwart" pro-lifers, Mike Pence and Tim Scott support a 15 week ban on abortion. Did you know that 93% of all abortions occur on or before 13 weeks? This is a not a pro-life stance at all! It is a compromise with death and the left. Here's a statistic for you, Republicans, almost 100% of all abortions lead to the death of an innocent life. Trump, Mikki Haley, and DeSantis are no better. Haley is for compromise, both Trump and DeSantis are evasive, however, DeSantis has signed a six week abortion ban in Florida. Nikki Haley says we must find a consensus. Here's the kicker, 24% of Republican women now consider themselves to be pro-choice! We are playing to consolidate our own base and by capitulating on this issue we have lost the moral high ground. A sticky wicket indeed, for Republicans.